Are summer rains returning to the Arabian Peninsula? Studies indicate the tropical belt is moving northward.

Arab Weather - Climate studies have shown that the imaginary tropical belt responsible for the Arabian Peninsula's rains, known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which controls summer monsoon rains, has begun gradually moving northward, potentially paving the way for more summer rains to reach parts of the Arabian Peninsula, especially the southern parts.

Currently, dry conditions prevail over most of the island, with rainfall concentrated in the winter and spring. The summer effects of the monsoon are generally confined to southwestern Saudi Arabia and Yemen. However, studies of ancient climates (interglacial periods) have shown that the island was greener when the tropical belt shifted northward, allowing monsoon rains to reach deeper into the Arabian Peninsula.

A gradual movement of the tropical belt has been recently observed.

Recent observational data show that there are already indications of the tropical belt shifting northward, particularly over North Africa and the Arabian Sea, with an increase in tropical humidity over the southeast of the Arabian Peninsula. This is linked to the warming of the Mediterranean and Sahara regions, which increases atmospheric pressure differences and pulls the tropical belt northward during the summer.

What do climate models say?

Global climate models (CMIP6) indicate that global warming could cause the tropical rain belt to shift northward over Africa and the Indian Ocean, and southward over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This northward expansion over Africa and the Indian Ocean means that tropical rains could reach southern Arabia, especially by the end of the current century if carbon emissions continue.

Models also show that the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere will become stronger and longer as the land warms compared to the oceans, increasing the chances of moisture reaching areas near the Arabian Peninsula.

Sources:

* nature.com
* researchgate.net
* scholar.archive.org
* link.springer.com
* lirias.kuleuven.be
* mideastenvironment.apps01.yorku.ca
* espo.nasa.gov